Silk Invest Frontier Market Update

Kenya – the land of innovation The Kenya Investment Authority released data showing that foreign companies have more than tripled their investments in Kenya’s manufacturing sector to KES 19 billion in the 12 months to June as compared to the same period last year, as they target a larger share of the regions consumer goods market. The Kenyan government has launched an online data portal to ensure that government information can be accessed by all with ease and to facilitate informed decision making.

Big plans in Nigeria The large corporations operating in Nigeria are executing bold expansion strategies. Lafarge Cement WAPCO unveiled its new NGN 23 billion power plant in Ewekoro that was commissioned so as to protect the company from the electricity crisis in Nigeria and improve the company’s margins. Any excess electricity will be sold to the grid. The plant consists of 6 units of 15 megawatts each.

Nestle SA has said that it plans to spend USD 1.4 billion by 2015 in expanding production capacity in East and Central Africa where sales growth is outpacing Europe and North America.

Egypt- There will be democracy! The Supreme Council of Armed Forces declared its full backing to Prime Minister Sharaf and reiterating its commitment to hand over power to a civilian administration as planned. On the Macro side, GDP seems to have contracted by 8.6% during the first quarter of 2011. Now that we have more economic data to work with for the first 6 months, it shows us that this country has proven to be quite resilient for having been through a revolution.

The GCC has cash and it shows Oman’s government spending has driven the budget deficit higher however; it was able to drive its oil production higher by 2.3%. Saudi fundamentals remain robust and the government continues to put capital to work throughout its economy. The UAE saw a robust increase in non-oil trade and hotel occupancy which indicates it may be back on track after a difficult 2009. The UAE central bank’s asset has reached an all-time high. Furthermore, Jordan will commence talks to the join the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) in August. Bahrain sees economic growth resuming at a healthy 3% and states that no international banks have left the country.

Moroccan furthers foreign expansion Attijariwafa is now probably West Africa’s largest lender as a result of its ongoing expansion throughout the western part of the Arican continent. BCP, another leading Moroccan financial institution has also further added to its presence in Spain.

Tunisia comes back The Tunisian markets continues it come-back from the lows of the Jasmine revolution in February. Exports have risen by almost 14% over the past year, mostly within the food and agriculture industries. According to the report “Doing Business 2011″, Tunisia improved its ranking by 3 points. In 2010, Tunisia was ranked 58th in ease of doing business. Its rank in 2011 is 55 out of 183 countries. Tunisia came second in the Arab world after Qatar.

Turkey and the pavlovian investors Despite posting impressive fundamentals, international investors mainly decided to trim exposure to Turkey out of fear there may be contagion from European debt issues. This is yet another episode of the absurdity of how pavlovian risk behaviour amongst international investors can get in the way of recognizing great fundamentals….

Ghana in good shape Amid an abundance of negative market news, Ghana stood out as an economy moving in the right direction. The inflation rate fell to the lowest joint level in 19 years which enabled the central bank to cut the key rate to the current level of 12.5%. Meanwhile the cedi has stabilised, easing pressure on import costs, while output levels have also been revised upwards. This is positive news when one considers the developed world is facing rate hikes and a default scenario. Also worth highlighting is Ecobank Ghana’s new electronic banking platform – a cash management application targeted at multinationals, public corporations, international organisations and financial institutions that do business in Africa.

Read our mid-month updates for more detailed insights and perspectives

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